GDC Next - Luck and Skill in Games

Luck and Skill in Games
By Skaff Elias (Three Donkeys)
Thursday

Why should we care?  There "should" be a bit of luck in every game.

Let's define some types of luck:

• Overt Randomness - This is very easy to have, and is often noticed by the player right away.
• Game Theory, physical limitations, and complexity can hide other forms of luck.

Are there games with no luck?  Some would say Chess, but even that game of skill still has randomness.

• Luck hinges on the game and the player.

Another game of "pure skill" that still has elements of luck:

• Compute the digit of pi in 30 seconds! (There is randomness in how many digits are computed.)

Now consider this game:

• Compute the xth digit of pi.  (This is skill based.)

Now let's define skill:

• It is the ability to do something well when compared to something else having a similar ability.
• How do we measure this?  Well, a max win percentage, a percentage of wins compared to another tier of ability, or Elo are all good measurements.
• Higher numbers are better for determining if a game is skill based!

New game, Rando Chess:

• Roll a die at the end of a regular Chess game.  On a 1, the loser of that game actually is the winner.
• In this example, the amount of luck goes up, but the skill required remains the same.

From Rando Chess, and similar games like it, players may reject the addition of luck as it moderates their reward (5 wins and a loss with luck vs. 6 wins based on skill).

Why we need luck:

In a situation with no luck, it is only a measurement being taken.  ("Who's taller?")

In other situations, some people love unexpected outcomes (i.e. slots).

The best case dealing with a player and an element of luck in a game of skill: they blame defeat on luck, but success on skill.

• This only works for new players.  Once "deep knowledge" is gained, delusions of wins/loses disappear.

The number of people that can play goes up when a game has elements of luck.  Now, some of those elements may only be accessed by high/low levels of skill (i.e. accessing a bonus level).

In conclusion, know your audience.  What is the key value proposition (what should the player get from the game)?  How is the game going to gain revenue?  Does the revenue model require replays?  Does PR/Marketing match the skill/luck interaction in-game?

---

Checkout the last post, On Demand Compute Power for Games!